The Middle East is once again engulfed in a deadly and destructive war, as Palestinian militants from the armed group Hamas launched a surprise coordinated attack on Israel by land, sea and air on Saturday morning. Israel declared war in response, and has been bombing Gaza with airstrikes and artillery, targeting Hamas’s military infrastructure and leaders. Rockets fired from Gaza have reached central and southern Israel, including Tel Aviv, triggering warning sirens and panic. The escalation in Gaza has sparked violence in the occupied West Bank and inside Israel, where Palestinians and Israeli Arabs have clashed with Israeli forces and Jewish settlers. Hundreds of people have been killed or wounded on both sides, mostly civilians and children.

The root causes of the conflict are complex and historical, but the immediate trigger was the situation in Jerusalem, where Israel has been trying to evict Palestinian families from their homes in Sheikh Jarrah, a neighborhood near the Old City. The evictions have been condemned by the international community as a violation of international law and human rights. The Palestinians have also been angered by Israel’s restrictions on their access to the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, one of the holiest sites in Islam, during the holy month of Ramadan.

This article will examine the background and context of the Gaza war, the perspectives and interests of the main actors involved, and the challenges and prospects for peace and security in the region and beyond.

The Background and Context of the Gaza War

The Gaza Strip is a small coastal enclave that is home to about two million Palestinians, most of whom are refugees or descendants of refugees who fled or were expelled from their homes in what is now Israel during the 1948 Arab-Israeli war. Gaza has been under Israeli occupation since 1967, when Israel captured it from Egypt during the Six-Day War. In 2005, Israel withdrew its troops and settlers from Gaza, but maintained control over its borders, airspace and sea access. In 2006, Hamas won the Palestinian legislative elections, but was rejected by Israel, the United States and other Western countries as a terrorist organization. In 2007, Hamas seized control of Gaza from its rival faction Fatah, which rules the West Bank. Since then, Gaza has been under a tight Israeli blockade that has crippled its economy and infrastructure, and caused widespread poverty and misery.

Hamas is an Islamist movement that seeks to establish an Islamic state in Palestine, including all of historic Palestine (Israel, the West Bank and Gaza). It does not recognize Israel’s right to exist, and has been engaged in armed resistance against it since its founding in 1987. Hamas has a political wing that runs the de facto government in Gaza, and a military wing that operates a large arsenal of rockets, mortars, drones and tunnels. Hamas also has ties with Iran, Qatar and Turkey, which provide it with financial and political support.

Israel is a Jewish state that was established in 1948 after the United Nations partitioned Palestine into two states: one for Jews and one for Arabs. However, the Arab states rejected the plan and attacked Israel, which resulted in Israel expanding its territory beyond the UN partition lines. Since then, Israel has fought several wars with its Arab neighbors, and has occupied the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem (which it later annexed). Israel considers Jerusalem as its eternal and undivided capital, but this is not recognized by most of the world. Israel also claims that it has a right to defend itself from any threats or attacks, and that it seeks peace and security with its neighbors.

Israel has a strong military that includes nuclear weapons, advanced aircraft, missiles and defense systems. It also has a close alliance with the United States, which provides it with military aid and diplomatic support. Israel also has relations with some Arab countries, such as Egypt, Jordan and recently the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, which have normalized ties with it under the Abraham Accords.

The Perspectives and Interests of the Main Actors Involved

The Gaza war is not only a conflict between Hamas and Israel, but also involves other actors who have their own perspectives and interests in the region.

The Palestinians are a people who have been living under occupation, displacement and oppression for decades. They aspire to have their own state in the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem, based on the 1967 borders and with a right of return for refugees. However, they are divided between Hamas and Fatah, which have different visions and strategies for achieving their national goals. Hamas believes that armed resistance is the only way to liberate Palestine from Israeli occupation, while Fatah favors negotiations and diplomacy. The Palestinians also face challenges from within, such as corruption, human rights violations and lack of democracy. The Palestinians have been supported by the Arab and Muslim world, as well as the international community, which have expressed solidarity and sympathy for their plight. However, they have also been frustrated by the lack of concrete action and pressure on Israel to end its occupation and violations.

The Israelis are a people who have been living in a state of war, fear and insecurity for decades. They believe that they have a historical and religious right to the land of Israel, and that they are surrounded by enemies who want to destroy them. They also believe that they have made many concessions and offers for peace, but that they have been met with rejection and violence. The Israelis are divided between the right-wing, which supports the expansion of settlements, the annexation of parts of the West Bank, and the maintenance of a Jewish majority in Israel, and the left-wing, which supports the withdrawal from the occupied territories, the creation of a Palestinian state, and the recognition of the rights of the Arab minority in Israel. The Israelis also face challenges from within, such as social inequality, political instability and religious extremism. The Israelis have been supported by the United States, which has been their main ally and protector, as well as some European countries, which have shared values and interests with them. However, they have also faced criticism and condemnation from the United Nations, human rights organizations and civil society groups, which have accused them of violating international law and human rights.

The regional actors are the countries that are located in or near the Middle East, and that have a stake in the outcome and consequences of the Gaza war. They include:

• Egypt, which shares a border with Gaza and has a peace treaty with Israel. Egypt has been mediating between Hamas and Israel to broker a ceasefire, and has also been providing humanitarian aid to Gaza. Egypt wants to maintain its role as a regional leader and a partner of the United States, but also faces domestic challenges such as economic crisis, political repression and security threats.
• Turkey, which has close ties with Hamas and has been vocal in condemning Israel’s actions. Turkey has also offered to send troops to protect Jerusalem and Gaza, and has called for an emergency meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) to discuss the situation. Turkey wants to assert its influence and leadership in the Muslim world, but also faces diplomatic tensions with Israel, the United States and other NATO allies, as well as internal problems such as economic decline, political polarization and human rights issues.
• Iran, which is an enemy of Israel and a supporter of Hamas. Iran has been supplying weapons and funds to Hamas, and has praised its resistance against Israel. Iran wants to challenge Israel’s regional dominance and US hegemony, but also faces international sanctions, domestic unrest and regional rivalries.
• Saudi Arabia, which is an ally of the United States and a rival of Iran. Saudi Arabia has been silent on the Gaza war, and has not expressed any support or sympathy for the Palestinians. Saudi Arabia wants to maintain its status quo and stability in the region, but also faces economic difficulties, social reforms and human rights pressures.

The international actors are the countries or organizations that are involved or interested in the Middle East peace process and the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. They include:

• The United States, which is the main mediator and sponsor of the peace process. The US has been calling for an end to hostilities and a return to negotiations, but has also reaffirmed its unwavering support for Israel’s right to self-defense. The US wants to maintain its strategic alliance with Israel, but also seeks to balance its relations with other regional partners and allies, such as Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. The US also faces domestic challenges such as political division, racial injustice and pandemic recovery.
• The European Union, which is a major donor and supporter of the Palestinian cause. The EU has been urging for an immediate ceasefire and a respect for international law and human rights, but has also acknowledged Israel’s legitimate security concerns. The EU wants to play a more active and constructive role in the peace process, but also faces internal challenges such as Brexit, migration crisis and democratic backsliding.
• The United Nations, which is the main international body that deals with global issues and conflicts. The UN has been calling for an end to violence and a protection of civilians, but has also faced difficulties in reaching a consensus among its members on how to address the situation. The UN wants to uphold its principles and values, but also faces limitations in its authority and effectiveness.

The Challenges and Prospects for Peace and Security in the Region

The Gaza war is not only a humanitarian tragedy, but also a political deadlock that threatens to derail any hopes or efforts for peace and security in the region. The challenges are immense and manifold, such as:

• The lack of trust and dialogue between Hamas and Israel, which have no direct contact or communication, and view each other as mortal enemies.

The lack of trust and dialogue between Hamas and Israel

Hamas and Israel have no direct contact or communication, and view each other as mortal enemies. They have fought four wars since 2008, each more devastating and destructive than the previous one. They have also engaged in frequent skirmishes and provocations, which often escalate into full-blown conflicts.

The absence of a unified Palestinian leadership

The Palestinian leadership is divided between the Fatah-dominated Palestinian Authority in the West Bank and the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip, and has failed to reconcile or hold elections for over a decade. This has created a political vacuum and a legitimacy crisis, which undermine the prospects for a peaceful resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The marginalization and frustration of the Palestinian youth

The Palestinian youth make up the majority of the population, and have little hope or opportunity for a better future under the Israeli occupation and blockade, or the corrupt and ineffective Palestinian governance. They are exposed to violence, poverty, unemployment, and oppression, which fuel their anger and despair. They are also disillusioned with the traditional political factions, which have failed to deliver on their promises and aspirations.

The regional and international dynamics

The regional and international dynamics are influenced by the shifting alliances and interests of various actors, such as Iran, Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United States, and others, who have different agendas and roles in the conflict. Some of them support or oppose Hamas or Israel, while others try to mediate or intervene. The changing geopolitical landscape also affects the balance of power and the prospects for cooperation or confrontation in the region.

The prospects for peace and security in the region are bleak and uncertain, but not impossible. Some possible steps or measures that could help to break the cycle of violence and create a conducive environment for dialogue and negotiation are:

The implementation of an immediate and lasting ceasefire

A ceasefire would end the hostilities and prevent further escalation or retaliation, and allow for the delivery of humanitarian aid and assistance to the people in need. It would also create a window of opportunity for diplomacy and dialogue, which could address the underlying causes and consequences of the conflict.

The resumption of meaningful talks between Hamas and Israel

Talks between Hamas and Israel would address the core issues and grievances of both sides, such as the lifting of the blockade on Gaza, the recognition of Israel’s right to exist, the release of prisoners, and the prevention of rocket attacks or incursions. These talks could be facilitated by third parties, such as Egypt or Qatar, who have good relations with both sides. They could also be supported by incentives or guarantees from other regional or international actors, such as Saudi Arabia or the United States.

The reconciliation and reform of the Palestinian political system

The reconciliation and reform of the Palestinian political system would restore the legitimacy and representation of the Palestinian people and enable them to speak with one voice and pursue their national aspirations for statehood and sovereignty. This would require holding free and fair elections, ending the division between Fatah and Hamas, forming a national unity government, reforming the security sector, fighting corruption, improving governance, and respecting human rights.

The involvement and support of the regional and international community

The involvement and support of the regional and international community would facilitate and monitor the implementation of the agreements and commitments made by the parties and provide incentives and guarantees for their compliance and cooperation. This would require enhancing the role of the United Nations, reviving the Quartet (the United States, Russia, European Union, and United Nations), engaging with regional organizations (such as the Arab League or the Organization of Islamic Cooperation), strengthening bilateral relations (such as between Israel and Arab countries), promoting multilateral initiatives (such as the Arab Peace Initiative or the Iranian Nuclear Deal), and mobilizing resources (such as humanitarian aid or development assistance).